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October 29, 2008

Why aren't there more Shankar Sharmas?

On the "Samvat 2065" show on CNBC-TV18, Samir Arora of Helios Capital Management pointed out something I've been thinking of frequently in recent months: why are there so few market experts (at least on TV) whose opinions are as bold and more importantly, as reasonably accurate, as that of First Global's Shankar Sharma.
Arora: We cannot talk about Shankar because he has been right most of this year and I totally appreciate that. But look at other people who come on your channel and look at what they have been saying about oil, (they said) oil was in shortage and it was going out of supply that there was one last Saudi Arabian field [remaining] in the world. With great conviction, everybody would come in and say the same things. Three months later, they come now and say [prices of] commodities are going down.

In fact, barring a few other exceptions, most "experts" I see on TV over the past several monthly have been saying that "there is likely to be a maximum of 10% downside from here" all the way from 21,000. And now (at Sensex=8,500), they don't want to "hazard predicting a bottom for this market". Capitulation of the "experts" anyone?

Arun Natarajan is the Founder & CEO of Venture Intelligence, the leading provider of information and networking services to the private equity and venture capital ecosystem in India. View free samples of Venture Intelligence newsletters and reports.