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November 12, 2009

"China is no friend of India’s"

In an article for Businessworld, Omkar Goswami provides one of the stronger opinions - by a business/economics person - on China-India relations.
Let’s have no doubt about a few things. China will always support Pakistan, come hail or high water. It will sooner or later start damming the Tsangpo (which becomes the Brahmaputra in India) and the Sutlej. My unlettered guess is that the work is about to start, or has just started — especially across the Sutlej. It will continue to make strident claims on Arunachal Pradesh. It will significantly strengthen its capabilities to move troops, artillery and other fire-power along its borders with India — both across Ladakh, Himachal and Uttaranchal in the west and Arunachal in the east. It will incessantly complain about the Dalai Lama if he visits border areas. It will never allow India a hope in hell of a permanent UN Security Council seat. And block any move that gives India a greater role in today’s league of nations.

China is no friend of India’s. It is, at best, an occasional bedfellow that can suddenly leave you in the lurch. China cares only for China, and if India helps in furthering China’s interests, it can tag along. Otherwise, it will be cut out. We can’t think of allying with China with any degree of permanence. Unfortunately, we still don’t seem to understand that. One day, we will. Hopefully, before it is too late.

The solution is to be real. To realise that we need to significantly strengthen our borders; call their bluff with credibility; focus on rapidly growing the economy; and build strong relationships with the US, Russia and certain key nations in Asia. And to never shirk from telling them to back off when they intrude into our affairs. That requires a strong state with a sophisticated veneer. Can we get there? You decide.

Arun Natarajan is the Founder & CEO of Venture Intelligence, the leading provider of data and analysis on private equity, venture capital and M&A deals in India. View free samples of Venture Intelligence newsletters and reports. Email the author at arun@ventureintelligence.in